Trump 2.0: What It Means for Global Aid

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Hello again fellow humanitarian leader!

Every media publication in the last few weeks felt obliged to write about the US elections, so I felt I should f

Fashion or pet magazines might also have questions about the next administration’s policies. After the Ohio migrants’ fake news, I won’t be surprised.

Our sector happens to be one of those most interested in the upcoming changes in D.C., especially since we saw what happened during the previous Trump presidency.

Here are my thoughts, mixed with those of some colleagues and journalists, to prepare for what will come.

Funding Volatility

Shall we already brace ourselves for what “America First” will mean for the leading humanitarian donor?

Certain regions and issues might gain popularity if tied to national interests, while others might be deprioritized. Part of the second could be sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan, whose Doha Agreement Trump might want to avoid mentioning now that the election campaign is over.

Many multilateral agencies, such as UNHCR, UNDP, and WHO, which are highly reliant on US contributions, may face further cuts. During his first term, Trump reduced funding for some UN bodies when he didn’t try directly to withdraw from them.

What To Do
Find new funding countries or avenues, but the last couple of years showed that diversification is not only linked to the new US President.

Localization Shift

Funds might be reallocated from larger INGOs and UN agencies to local and faith-based organizations. It would align with the broader rhetoric of reducing "bureaucratic inefficiencies" in foreign aid.

My Take
While localization is not bad, it could be a problem if it is only driven by reducing costs and ideological agendas. For example, there could be instances where faith-based organizations receive preferential funding even in settings where secular or community-driven initiatives could be more effective.

Climate Change

If Trump continues to ride the wave of skepticism about climate change, he might decide to remove attention and funding from regions severely affected by environmental disasters, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.

During the 2016-2020 Presidency, he redirected funding away from climate-focused initiatives, prioritizing fossil fuel development. It could mean cuts to crucial programs addressing water scarcity, desertification, and food insecurity.

The Risk
By undermining global trust and cooperation on climate issues, the policies may convince other nations to follow along, affecting climate-affected regions even more.

Reproductive Health

Prohibiting US funding to organizations that provide abortion services, referrals, or information, even with non-US funding sources, if the global gag rule is reinstated, we might see a new stall in reproductive health progress in many countries. Uganda and Ethiopia had already seen their progress stop during Trump’s first term.

Who It Affects
As always, the most vulnerable are women and girls in crisis settings.

What To Do
Once again, diversification of funding is compulsory for every agency.

Geopolitical Maneuvering

Trump’s transactional diplomacy could significantly reshape the focus and allocation of humanitarian aid.

• His support to Israel could mean increased aid to the region, potentially with a withdrawal from other crises like Yemen or Sudan. And support to Gaza could reduce even further.

• His stated goal to end the conflict in Ukraine could reduce humanitarian funding so that the country could force the parties to an agreement.

• Little support for multilateral institutions could reduce their capacity to tackle global poverty and financial inequality, which require universal policies.

Our Hope
Trump is known for his quick turnaround, but policy changes need more time. Many could remain the same.

Resources

Thanks for reading,
Luca - Humanitarian Café